Reactions to story from The New York Times

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  The Lame-Duck Economy

  http://susiemadrak.com/2008/11/22/08/29/the-lame-duck-econom...
  47 days ago in Suburban Guerrilla · Authority: 224

  Krugman: How much can go wrong in the two months before Mr. Obama takes the oath of office? The answer, unfortunately, is: a lot. Consider how much darker the economic picture has grown since the failure of Lehman Brothers, which took place just over
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  Transition

  http://www.dianaswednesday.com/2008/12/transition/
  37 days ago in Wednesday-Night · Authority: 10

  Related posts e.g. U.S. economy and bailout measures and on Wednesday-Night.com The New York Times offers profiles of potential members of the administration. Predictions of who gets what post are not always surefire, but the profiles of potentials are very useful. 7 December Obama to focus on stimulus not deficit (FT) Barack Obama on Sunday spelled out his plans for the biggest infrastructure investment in the US for half a century. The president-elect argued that with the economy reeling, his incoming administration could not afford to worry about a spiralling budget deficit. Mr Obama’s proposals for government works on roads, bridges, internet broadband and school buildings, together with energy efficiency measures and health spending, are far more detailed than the normal announcements during a time of transition. Obama Pledges Public Works on a Vast Scale A big part of that will be public works spending. “We will create millions of jobs by making the single largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s,” Mr. Obama said. He did not estimate how much he would devote to that purpose, but when he met with the nation’s governors last week, they said the states had $136 billion worth of road, bridge, water and other projects ready to go as soon as money became available. They estimated that each billion dollars spent would create up to 40,000 jobs. Energy efficiency high on Obama stimulus plan President-elect Barack Obama on Saturday said that building energy efficiency is central to his administration’s economic recovery plan and outlined the conditions he intends to impose on ailing U.S. automakers. The Brightest Are Not Always the Best … it’s the economic team that evokes trace memories of our dark best-and-brightest past. Summers and Geithner are both protégés of another master of the universe, Robert Rubin. Ever since his acclaimed service as Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, Rubin has labored as a senior adviser and director at Citigroup, now being bailed out by taxpayers to the potential tune of some $300 billion. Somehow the all-seeing Rubin didn’t notice the toxic mortgage-derivatives on Citi’s books until it was too late. The Citi may never sleep, but he snored. 4 December In case it wasn’t already clear that Barack Obama is going to have a lot to deal with when he takes office, the Government Accountability Office, Congress’s investigative agency, has released a list of 13 urgent issues for him and the next Congress. If  only the Canadian parliamentary system allowed the PM to reach out to the very best and brightest! Issues Pressing, Obama Fills Top Posts at a Sprint Mr. Obama is moving more quickly to fill his administration’s top ranks than any newly elected president in modern times. He has named virtually the entire top echelon of his White House staff and nearly half of his cabinet. Just a month after his election, Mr. Obama has announced his selections for 13 of the 24 most important positions in a new administration. 3 December In Banking, Emanuel Made Money and Connections Mr. Emanuel turned out to be an effective banker, proving a quick study with financial concepts, even as he relied on others in his office for heavy number crunching, former colleagues said. He worked 12-hour days and was known among clients for his relentlessness, constantly on the phone or sending e-mail, and being unafraid to pitch deals. Revenue in Wasserstein’s Chicago office climbed significantly after his arrival. Obama team signals foreign policy shift: Although Defense Secretary Robert Gates is staying on, the nomination of onetime rival Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., as secretary of state and James Jones, a former NATO commander, as national security adviser suggest that the administration of Barack Obama will focus more on diplomacy, foreign aid and and maintaining relations with multilateral institutions than has U.S. President George W. Bush. The New York Times (12/1)  TIME profile of Susan Rice (12/3) Hillary Clinton joins Obama’s team of rivals (Newsweek) Hillary Clinton becomes part of the team, but is she a team player? Susan Rice named U.S. ambassador to UN U.S. President-elect Barack Obama appointed longtime aide Susan Rice to the post of U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations on Monday and will reinstate the position as a Cabinet-level post. At 44, Rice would be the second-youngest person in U.S. history to hold the position. Rice, who was assistant secretary of state for African affairs under President Bill Clinton, is known as an advocate of strong intervention to stop genocide as it is occurring. The New York Times (12/1)  30 November Bush Aides Rush to Enact a Safety Rule Obama Opposes WASHINGTON — The Labor Department is racing to complete a new rule, strenuously opposed by President-elect Barack Obama, that would make it much harder for the government to regulate toxic substances and hazardous chemicals to which workers are exposed on the job. 29 November National Security Pick: General James L. Jones Mr. Obama is expected to announce his national security team on Monday in Chicago, with Mr. Gates at the Pentagon, Mrs. Clinton at the State Department, General Jones at the White House and possibly Adm. Dennis C. Blair, who is retired, as director of national intelligence. What is notable is that none of them have a long history with Mr. Obama, and none are known to be particularly close to him. General Jones will … be expected to mediate between rivals, particularly in dealing with Mr. Gates, who has his own power base at the Pentagon, and with Mrs. Clinton, who has told friends that she does not expect the national security adviser to stand between her and the president. 28 November Mumbai bombings will test the mettle of U.S. president-elect Some terrorists want to make a statement during this period of transition in American politics. 26 November Obama’s Shrewd Choices By Joe Conason His appointees will implement the Obama program, not only because that is what he tells them to do but because that is what they have come to believe is best for the country. Whatever Summers or Geithner or any of the other centrists on the new team may once have said or thought, they will pursue a course of massive counter-cyclical spending, public investment and strong new regulation. Obama Picks Volcker to Head New Economic Panel (NYT) Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, has agreed to lead a new White House economic advisory committee, President-elect Barack Obama said. Austan Goolsbee, a University of Chicago economist who was a leading economic adviser to the Obama presidential campaign, will lead the staff of the advisory board. Obama’s Wall Street Woes (HuffPost) So much for perfect timing. Barack Obama presented his economic team — Summers, Geithner, Orzag — all protégés of Robert Rubin — just as the Treasury Department was pumping out billions to rescue Citibank — which featured Rubin as chair of its executive committee — from collapse. Is this the change we need? The depth of the crisis we face renders the old arguments irrelevant. Under Bill Clinton, Rubin championed reducing budget deficits, deregulating finance, and opening foreign markets to private investment. Now deficit spending must go up, banks must be re-regulated, trade imbalances must be reduced and manufacturing can no longer be scorned. Click here to read more. 25 November Obama Unveils Team to Tackle ‘Historic’ Crisis (NYT) By naming a team deeply experienced in dealing with financial crises — Mr. Geithner was heavily involved over the weekend in the efforts to stabilize Citigroup — Mr. Obama underscored his determination to assure Americans and foreign investors that he would aggressively step into a leadership vacuum in Washington during the transition. We agree with all of Andrew Cohen’s points and are mystified by the choice of Hillary Clinton. Presumably, we will have to wait for the memoirs and history books to explain Mr. Ohama’s decision. Andrew Cohen: Clinton’s moment It is expected that Mr. Obama will appoint Mrs. Clinton secretary of state. This is the most prestigious position in the cabinet, the face of America to the world. On the surface, the move is brilliant. For Mr. Obama, Mrs. Clinton and the country, it’s a mistake. Cosmopolitan and intelligent as she is, Mrs. Clinton does not come from diplomacy, the academy, military, the bureaucracy or the cabinet, which have produced almost all postwar secretaries of state. Dean Acheson, George C. Marshall, John Foster Dulles, Dean Rusk, Henry Kissinger, Cyrus Vance, James Baker, Warren Christopher and Colin Powell all brought far more expertise to the job than she does. 23 November David Brooks is positively burbling over the Obama team: …more impressive than any other in recent memory. One may not agree with them on everything or even most things, but a few things are indisputably true. First, these are open-minded individuals who are persuadable by evidence. Second, they are admired professionals. Third, they are not excessively partisan. Fourth, they are not ideological. 22 November Richardson at Commerce, Summers as economic adviser Democratic sources report two major decisions by President-elect Obama: New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) will be named secretary of Commerce, subject to final vetting. And Lawrence Summers, Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, will be White House economic adviser. 21 November Tim Geithner, Treasury Secretary: Barack Obama will name his Treasury Secretary on Monday, a Democratic source confirms…. NBC reports: Former Treasury Secretary Summers — also considered for the post — might still play a major future role in the Obama administration, according to sources …. Paul Volcker is expected to play a continuing advisory role — not clear if he would have an appointed position. (Reuters) Commentators called on President-elect Barack Obama to signal more forcefully the economic policy he would enact upon taking over from George W. Bush on January 20. They expressed concern the economy might deteriorate further, as it did during the transition from Herbert Hoover to Franklin Roosevelt in 1932 and 1933. Nobel laureate economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman called the stretch between the 1932 election and the actual transfer of power disastrous for the U.S. economy in part because “the outgoing administration had no credibility (and) the incoming administration had no authority.” [The lame-duck economy] WASHINGTON — Representative Henry A. Waxman wrested the chairmanship of the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee from Representative John D. Dingell on Thursday in a coup that is expected to accelerate passage of energy, climate and health legislation backed by President-elect Barack Obama. The ouster of Mr. Dingell, of Michigan, was another blow to the reeling American auto industry, which learned Thursday that it would not get any financial assistance from Congress until it showed how it could be profitable again. Mr. Dingell, who represents a suburban Detroit district, has been the industry’s most stalwart defender in Congress, having slowed or blocked many safety and environmental standards that the auto companies argued they could not meet. More Hillary’s quest for her ‘legacy’ job hits trouble Fears that Clinton as Secretary of State would create rival centre of power to challenge Obama … The sticking point in the negotiations is the ethical review of former President Clinton’s most confidential dealings. 20 November Obama’s Pick of Daschle May Test Conflict-of-Interest Pledge At issue is Mr. Daschle’s work since leaving the Senate four years ago as a board member of the Mayo Clinic and a highly paid adviser to health care clients at the law and lobbying firm Alston & Bird. The Economist, however, applauds the choice ’shrewd choice’ of Daschle. 18 November Clinton insiders say that, contrary to other reports, Bill’s dealings are not the only roadblock to Hillary’s Cabinet post. The Senator herself is undecided: Press reports that portray Clinton as willing to accept the job - once the Obama transition team vets Bill Clinton’s philanthropic and business ventures - are inaccurate, one Clinton insider told Politico. Clinton, the person said, remains deeply “torn” between the possibility of serving in Obama’s cabinet and remaining in the Senate to “help pass health care and work on a broad range of domestic issues.” More 17 November Obama meets McCain WASHINGTON — President-elect Barack Obama and Senator John McCain agreed on Monday, in their first meeting since the election, to work together on some of the nation’s most pressing challenges, from the financial crisis to national security problems. The president-elect and the Arizona senator hold relatively similar views on issues like climate change and ethics reform, where cooperation might be fruitful. More urgently, Mr. Obama may be hoping for help in pushing for a new economic stimulus package that faces stiff Republican resistance. Sam Stein is in favour of Hillary as Sec State: Clinton Aides Comfortable With Bill’s Vetting, Worried About Press , but we tend to agree with Ken Silverstein’s Five Reasons Hillary Clinton Should Not Be Secretary of State, especially the “Look who’s endorsing her” line. This is interesting conjecture (NYT) This morning, New York Governor David Paterson made clear that if Senator Clinton vacates the [Senate] seat, he will not appoint himself to her job. … Among the names that have been raised are two Kennedys: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (whose father once represented New York in the Senate), and Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg; Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. More 14 November (FP Morning Brief) Hillary Clinton is reportedly emerging as a serious contender to become secretary of state. [the pros and cons] CNN says that, as of yesterday evening, the transition team had not contacted her about taking the position. Defense insiders expect President-elect Obama to make Richard Danzig his defense secretary, according to the the Army Times. Politico reports that Larry Summers may be off the short list for Treasury secretary. 13 November The transition to Barack Obama’s new administration is already well under way Mr Obama is bringing the same talent for organisation to the transition that he brought to his campaign. He has been quietly planning since the summer with John Podesta, a former White House chief of staff to Bill Clinton and the head of a Clintonian think-tank, the Centre for American Progress, studying previous transitions and mulling over appointments. And he announced an expanded transition team the day after winning the election, adding Valerie Jarrett, a veteran Chicago insider, and Pete Rouse, his chief of staff in the Senate. So far the troika’s approach has been thoroughly businesslike, with remarkably few leaks (particularly for Democrats) and a firm focus on getting things done quickly but not hastily. Mr Podesta has suggested that, given the gravity of the country’s problems, Mr Obama will try to announce several cabinet appointments, particularly the treasury secretary and the national security team, before December. But rumours that he would do so within days of the election proved to be exaggerated. … Mr Obama’s choice of his chief of staff is smart. Mr Emanuel has a remarkable combination of experience in both the executive and the legislative branch: he was an adviser to Mr Clinton as well as the mastermind behind the Democratic takeover of Congress in 2006. He is also a hard-ass—an expletive-spouting dynamo who can keep the trains running on time and malcontents cowering in their caves (he is nicknamed “Rahmbo”, and he once sent a dead fish to somebody who crossed him). The Republicans immediately objected that Mr Emanuel’s appointment undermined Mr Obama’s promise to bring a new kind of politics to Washington. But Mr Emanuel’s main job will be to keep his former colleagues on the Hill in line, not to worry about the opposition. He is a Clintonian centrist who has championed welfare reform, free trade and even a slightly flatter tax code. He has been close to his fellow Chicago pol for years. And he is the ideal bad cop to Mr Obama’s good cop.
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  現在の金融危機と大恐慌の比較

  http://blog.ohtan.net/archives/51313918.html
  7 days ago in 防衛省ＯＢ太田述正アングロサクソン文明と軍事研究ブログ · Authority: 14

  太田述正コラム#2933（2008.11.24） ＜現在の金融危機と大恐慌の比較＞（2009.1.1公開） １　始めに 　これから、現在の金融危機と戦前の大恐慌とを比較する議論がどんどんなされると思いますが、その皮切りに、二つの論考のさわりをご紹介し、私のコメントを付しましょう。 ２　ニューヨークタイムス掲載論考 　今年ノーベル経済学賞を受賞したポール・クルーグマンの論考です。 　誰もが新しいニューディールについて語っている理由は明白だ。2008年は1932年同様、経済的、金融的危機に直面し、選挙民の目から見て、共和党の自由市場イデオロギーが信用をなくし、同時に共和党の能力への信頼感もなくなった結果、共和党の長い間の支配期が終焉を迎えたからだ。・・・ 　もう一つのより気になる類似・・・がある。すなわち、危機のまっただ中における権力の空白期の到来だ。1932～33年の、大統領選挙と実際の権力継承までの長い「国王不在期」は米国経済にとって破滅的だった。その理由の一つは、去りゆく政権への信頼性がなくなっている一方で、次の政権はまだ何の権威もなく、かつ、両政権間のイデオロギー的亀裂は余りに大きく、協調的行動をとることが不可能だったからだ。 　同じことが現在も起こりつつある。 　今回の「国王不在期」が短いことは確かだ。ローズベルトは３月まで大統領に就任できなかったが、オバマはホワイトハウスに１月20日に入る。しかし、今日の方が危機の進展は速い。・・・ 　＜ところで、＞私がとりわけ心配しているのは、二つのDだ、デフレとデトロイトだ。 　デフレについてだが、1990年代の日本の「失われた10年」はエコノミスト達にインフレ期待が低くなりすぎると経済を前進させることが極めてむつかしくなるということを教えた。（人々が文字通り価格が低下すると思うかどうかは関係がない。）米国経済には明確にデフレ圧力が現在働いていて、回復の兆しが見えない月が続けば続くほど、われわれが日本型の罠に何年もはまってしまう可能性が増大する。・・・ http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/21/opinion/21krugman.html?ref=opinion&pagewanted=print （11月22日アクセス） ３　スレート誌掲載論考 　次は、コラムニストのダニエル・グロス（Daniel Gross）の論考です。 　・・・2008年の信用収縮と大恐慌は類似の起源を持っているのかもしれない。どちらも金融危機が消費者需要の減少をもたらして始まった。 　しかし、この二つはかなり異なる。 　勤労者達が５時頃に「あんた、小銭をくれないか」と語りかける代わりに、今はきれいにひげを剃った金融産業の重鎮達が議員サン達に対し、1,000億米ドルを与えて欲しいと要請をしているのだから。もっと言えば、1930年代に米国民が経験させられた経済的苦悩に比べれば今日のそれは取るに足らない、ということだ。 　「３月３日の午後までには、米国で営業している銀行は皆無になった」とローズベルトは1933年３月12日の炉端会話（fireside chat）・・・で語った。1933年には約4,000の商業銀行が倒産し、預金者達は大損害を被った。・・・1929年８月に始まった不況は実に43ヶ月の長きにわたって続いた。その間、失業率は25%にも達し、所得は半分になった。 　これに対し、2008年11月中旬においては、倒産した銀行はまだわずか19行に過ぎない。連邦準備制度理事会は先週、失業率が2009年中に7.6%に達するだろうと述べた。エコノミスト達は・・・2008年４月に始まった不況は来年の夏までしか続かないだろうと述べている。（もっとも、今年の１月には同じ人物が、2008年と2009年に経済は順調に成長するだろうと予測したものだ。）・・・ 　1929～33年の世界は、社会保障とか預金保険のように人々を経済的災厄から隔離するショック緩衝装置を欠いていた。1930年代においては、ドイツ、ソ連、日本、イタリアといった世界最大の諸経済が市場資本主義に対して敵対的な指導者達によって舵取りをされていた。 　しかし今では、米国流の市場資本主義が自傷行為に苦しむ一方で、ドイツ、イタリア、そして日本（ただしロシアはちょっとだけ）が米国と共通の問題に対処すべく協働している。 　＜大恐慌＞当時は、われわれは弱体の連邦準備制度理事会とポール・メロン（Paul Mellon）という、不景気をいいことだとのたまうような金持ちの財務長官という疫病神を持っていた。彼は、「労働力を一掃（liquidate）せよ、株式を一掃せよ、農民を一掃せよ、不動産を一掃せよ、そうすれば人々はより懸命に働き、より道徳的な生活を送るだろう」と言ったのだ。 　これに対し、現在の連邦準備制度理事会議長のバーナンキは、大不況について熟知しており、金持ちの財務長官のポールソンは、流動性を株式、農民、そして不動産に供給することを欲している。 　違っている最後の点は、1929年の大不況入りの際、国民は３年以上も、その任にあらざる大統領が去るのを待たなければならなかったのに、今、われわれはわずかもう２ヶ月しか待つ必要がないことだ。 http://www.slate.com/id/2205186/ （11月23日アクセス） ４　終わりに 　クルーグマンもグロスもどちらも、最新の大恐慌研究を勉強していないようですね。 　・・・大恐慌の神話のうちで、フーバーはバカだったというのも今、見直されていますね。例えば彼が作った「リコンストラクション・ファイナンシャル・コーポレーション（RFC）」という・・・不良債権の買い取りを仕切った・・・金融公庫の話があります。 　・・・そこで不良債権の買い取りをしたり、銀行の貸し渋りが起こっている場合に直接貸し出したりした。これはフーバーがやったことですよね。それから公共事業を拡大して、失業者を救済したのもフーバー。彼はもっとやりたかった。 　フーバーの評価についても、ハロルド・ジェームズが非常にいいことを言っています。フーバーはもう一歩財政支出もやりたかったし、RFCももっと 拡大したかった。ところがオーストリアでクレジットアンシュタルト銀行の破綻が起こって、1931年に英国ポンドの金本位制離脱まであった。 　その流れを見ると、次は米国に危機が来る。ここで財政支出を増やす、あるいは金融拡張すると、米国の金準備にアタックがかかる。これを考えて方針 を転換し財政も縮小し増税する。RFCも拡大をやめなきゃいけなかった――。これが、ハロルド・ジェームズのフーバーに対する評価なんです。 　そうして見ると、実はルーズベルトはフーバーの決めた枠組みを継いだだけになる。といってもルーズベルトが偉かったのは、就任早々金本位制をやめた、というよりやめざるを得なくて、その路線をひた走ったことです。・・・ http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/topics/20081120/177889/ （11月21日アクセス） 　私自身、フーバーを高く評価するコラム（#597～599）を書いたことがあります。 　黄色人種差別意識を抱き続け、英国を世界的覇権国の地位から、そして日本を東アジアの覇権国の地位から引きずり下ろすことに執念を燃やし、ファシズムと共産主義には大甘であったというダメ大統領の極致のローズベルトが、こと国内の経済政策には力量を発揮したなんて、およそありえないことだと皆さん思われるでしょう。 　その通りなのです。
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  Realidade vs. Obama

  http://notasaocafe.wordpress.com/2008/12/27/realidade-vs-oba...
  12 days ago in Notas ao café... · Authority: 67

  Publicado por JN em Dezembro 27, 2008 Bob Gorrell, «Creators Syndicate Inc.» Paul Krugman, Prémio Nobel da Economia de 2008, escreveu um artigo para o NY Times no qual ela afirma que, independentemente do que o recém-eleito presidente Barack Obama faça, 2009 vai ser um ano infernal em termos económicos e que nunca mais nada será como antigamente: Whatever the new administration does, we’re in for months, perhaps even a year, of economic hell. After that, things should get better, as President Obama’s stimulus plan — OK, I’m told that the politically correct term is now «economic recovery plan» — begins to gain traction. Late next year, the economy should begin to stabilize, and I’m fairly optimistic about 2010. But what comes after that? Right now everyone is talking about, say, two years of economic stimulus — which makes sense as a planning horizon. Too much of the economic commentary I’ve been reading seems to assume, however, that that’s really all we’ll need — that once a burst of deficit spending turns the economy around we can quickly go back to business as usual. In fact, however, things can’t just go back to the way they were before the current crisis. And I hope the Obama people understand that. The prosperity of a few years ago, such as it was — profits were terrific, wages not so much — depended on a huge bubble in housing, which replaced an earlier huge bubble in stocks. And since the housing bubble isn’t coming back, the spending that sustained the economy in the pre-crisis years isn’t coming back. [...] But once the economy has perked up a bit, there will be a lot of pressure on the new administration to pull back, to throw away the economy’s crutches. And if the administration gives in to that pressure too soon, the result could be a repeat of the mistake FDR made in 1937 — the year he slashed spending, raised taxes and helped plunge the United States into a serious recession. Joe Heller, «The Green Bay Press-Gazette» Paul Krugman avisou sobre o vácuo de poder durante a administração Bush o que ajudou a piorar os efeitos da crise económica. No Politico escreve-se que Krugman mantém conversas com a futura administração Obama sobre a economia. Dave Granlund, «Politicalcartoons.com» Publicado em Dezembro 27, 2008 às 4:11 am e está arquivado em notas ao café. . Pode seguir as respostas a esta entrada através do RSS 2.0 feed. Você pode deixe uma resposta, ou trackback do seu próprio site.
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  Investing in Deflationary Times

  http://www.eminimaster.com/blog/2008/12/investing-in-deflati...
  16 days ago in The Traders Journal · Authority: 1

  Jim Kingsdale submits: “Deflation, The Economic A-Bomb: make no mistake, the most difficult problem we can face would be deflation. It is a virus in the economy that seizes upon the public mind and causes a vicious cycle of reduced spending, reduced production, and reduced profits. As Krugman recently noted, the deflation of the 1930’s came about during the interregnum between Hoover and Roosevelt. None of the downturns since the Depression has included deflation. Let us hope this one does not either.” Now, just less than a month later, the jury seems to be decided. It is looking like deflation is exactly what is occurring in the U.S. economy and probably in many others. One tiny personal example: I’ve been planning to switch from a PC to a Mac for a few good reasons, but I don’t need to do it immediately. It’s about a ,000 purchase all totaled, which I probably would have made just on an impulse in earlier times. But today I decided to put off the purchase and I shocked myself to discover why: It’s because I’m pretty sure that in a few months the Mac will be a few hundred dollars cheaper. Complete Story »
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  On the Road to Deflation

  http://www.energyinvestmentstrategies.com/2008/12/22/on-the-...
  16 days ago in Jim Kingsdale's Energy Investment Strategies · Authority: 69

  On the Road to Deflation December 22nd, 2008 On November 23rd I wrote the following: “Deflation, The Economic A-Bomb: make no mistake, the most difficult problem we can face would be deflation. It is a virus in the economy that seizes upon the public mind and causes a vicious cycle of reduced spending, reduced production, and reduced profits. As Krugman recently noted, the deflation of the 1930’s came about during the interregnum between Hoover and Roosevelt. None of the downturns since the Depression has included deflation. Let us hope this one does not either.” Now, …
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  We Need A President, And We Need Him Now

  http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/013579.php
  34 days ago in The Left Coaster · Authority: 243

  by Turkana The hits just keep on coming. Yesterday, it was a report that retailers suffered their worst November in 30 years. Today, it's that the same month saw the worst job losses in 34 years. Yesterday, Paul Krugman had these gloomy words: So it may be hard for stimulus to get much traction until late 2009 — and that’s even if Congress goes along, which may be a problem given all the bad analysis and disinformation out there. So here’s what I’m wondering: will it, in fact, even be possible to pull the economy out of its nosedive before unemployment goes into double digits? I’m starting to wonder. The good news is that we will have some national leadership, next year. The bad news is that we need it now. It is customary for an incoming president to defer to the outgoing president, but this is no time for customary deference. The outgoing president is the worst ever, he is doing absolutely nothing to help the imploding economy, and things continue to get worse, and likely will continue to do so until this administration is over. As Krugman wrote, a couple weeks ago: There is, however, another and more disturbing parallel between 2008 and 1932 — namely, the emergence of a power vacuum at the height of the crisis. The interregnum of 1932-1933, the long stretch between the election and the actual transfer of power, was disastrous for the U.S. economy, at least in part because the outgoing administration had no credibility, the incoming administration had no authority and the ideological chasm between the two sides was too great to allow concerted action. And the same thing is happening now. It’s true that the interregnum will be shorter this time: F.D.R. wasn’t inaugurated until March; Barack Obama will move into the White House on Jan. 20. But crises move faster these days. How much can go wrong in the two months before Mr. Obama takes the oath of office? The answer, unfortunately, is: a lot. Consider how much darker the economic picture has grown since the failure of Lehman Brothers, which took place just over two months ago. And the pace of deterioration seems to be accelerating. Some Democratic leaders are now openly attempting to push Barack Obama to step up, now. Jim Kuhnhenn of the Associated Press has this:

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